Despite renewed optimism surrounding the potential approval of a spot XRP ETF in the U.S., market sentiment appears far from bullish. Options data reveals persistent fears of further price decline, even as analysts highlight the token’s strong trading infrastructure and growing relevance.
Market Sentiment: Bearish Bias Persists
Recent activity on Deribit, the world’s leading crypto options exchange, shows that traders are favoring put options over calls when it comes to XRP. Data from Amberdata indicates that across several timeframes, put options are commanding higher premiums, signaling a widespread expectation of a downward price move.
In options trading, this preference for puts is a clear hedge against downside risks. When the implied volatility skew leans toward puts — as it currently does with XRP — it suggests that traders are positioning for further losses or seeking protection from potential price drops.
Technical Signals Point to Further Weakness
From a charting perspective, XRP recently broke down from an ascending wedge pattern, typically considered a bearish signal. This move opens the possibility for a re-test of support near the $1.60 level, which was seen in recent weeks.
While XRP's order book remains relatively deep and resilient — especially compared to tokens like Solana (SOL) — the technical breakdown overshadows that strength for now.
ETF Speculation Isn’t Lifting Sentiment (Yet)
Earlier this week, some market analysts floated the idea that XRP could follow Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) to become the next asset to receive a spot ETF approval in the U.S. Given XRP’s utility in cross-border payments and Ripple's ongoing efforts in institutional markets, the narrative has some fundamental backing.
However, the options market isn’t buying the hype — at least not yet. The consistent premium on puts implies that traders see more risk than reward in the short to mid term, regardless of potential regulatory breakthroughs.
Looking Ahead
With macro uncertainty still lingering and regulatory clarity around Ripple’s legal status in flux, XRP may remain under pressure despite promising infrastructure and speculation over a future ETF.
Still, should a spot ETF be approved, sentiment could quickly reverse. For now, though, the derivatives market is flashing red, reminding investors that optimism doesn’t always match price action.
