Bitcoin is teetering on the edge of another potential market bottom — and the signals are flashing red for short-term holders. According to the latest on-chain data from Glassnode, the Short-Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value (STH MVRV) ratio has dropped to 0.82, a level that historically precedes major capitulation events and marks attractive entry points for long-term investors.

Short-Term Holders Deep in the Red

The STH MVRV ratio is a widely followed indicator that measures the average unrealized gains or losses of short-term Bitcoin holders — typically those who bought within the last 155 days. A ratio below 1.0 suggests these investors are underwater.

At 0.82, the data signals that short-term holders are down roughly 18% on average — a pain point that has, in past cycles, led to mass capitulation and shaken out weaker hands.

🔍 In comparison:

August 2024: STH MVRV bottomed at 0.84

November 2022: Dropped to 0.77 — both moments shortly followed market recoveries.

These historical precedents suggest Bitcoin may be approaching a bottoming zone, with the potential for a reversal once the selling pressure from recent buyers subsides.

Long-Term Holders Quietly Accumulate

While short-term holders face significant stress, long-term holders (LTHs) are steadily building their positions. Since February 2025, investors who have held BTC for over 155 days have added roughly 500,000 BTC to their wallets — an increase that far exceeds the 300,000 BTC distributed by short-term holders during the same time frame.

This divergence paints a familiar picture in crypto cycles:

Weak hands are capitulating

Smart money is stepping in quietly

Such periods often act as accumulation zones for institutional players and seasoned investors anticipating the next bull run.

Capitulation Could Mean Opportunity

While no single metric can predict market direction with certainty, the current setup is reminiscent of past cycle lows. Deep drawdowns in STH MVRV have historically signaled value zones where long-term investors begin to accumulate aggressively — often preceding sharp reversals.

For traders and investors watching from the sidelines, this could be a key inflection point to monitor.